Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.304225 2.438483 2.584202 2.755646 2.953940 3.178837 3.457416
2025-07-27 2.168036 2.335322 2.524457 2.757902 3.044067 3.392063 3.862707
2025-08-03 2.079725 2.266888 2.484477 2.762358 3.118141 3.575494 4.242796
2025-08-10 1.972225 2.163748 2.389884 2.684366 3.071227 3.585878 4.375155
2025-08-17 1.911849 2.110966 2.349713 2.666807 3.094639 3.685136 4.643196
2025-08-24 1.862234 2.067022 2.315719 2.651571 3.115287 3.776717 4.908329
2025-08-31 1.820371 2.029557 2.286368 2.638203 3.133981 3.862626 5.174062
2025-09-07 1.797730 2.014110 2.282956 2.657270 3.197162 4.019175 5.595126
2025-09-14 1.735801 1.946402 2.208624 2.574770 3.105119 3.917894 5.495115
2025-09-21 1.707295 1.919906 2.186506 2.562377 3.114629 3.980089 5.732419
2025-09-28 1.668820 1.879246 2.144017 2.519084 3.074071 3.953674 5.774418
2025-10-05 1.669076 1.887891 2.166284 2.566762 3.173310 4.171798 6.406157
2025-10-12 1.675794 1.905734 2.202267 2.637088 3.315514 4.490102 7.434109
2025-10-19 1.657883 1.890412 2.192319 2.639334 3.347583 4.607419 7.981196
2025-10-26 1.642166 1.877251 2.184452 2.643567 3.381982 4.731523 8.610326
2025-11-02 1.601307 1.829727 2.127881 2.572742 3.286331 4.584184 8.266139
2025-11-09 1.581431 1.809602 2.108515 2.556878 3.282285 4.622561 8.591353
2025-11-16 1.563409 1.791427 2.091183 2.543110 3.280405 4.663925 8.945046
2025-11-23 1.546936 1.774871 2.075522 2.531030 3.280205 4.707640 9.328917
2025-11-30 1.541437 1.772688 2.079539 2.548567 3.331411 4.865834 10.298236
2025-12-07 1.505388 1.728791 2.024159 2.473221 3.216063 4.647093 9.439514
2025-12-14 1.491709 1.714823 2.010577 2.461964 3.213468 4.679264 9.786135
2025-12-21 1.469111 1.688484 1.979120 2.422336 3.159234 4.592761 9.544840